Alaska Senate: Begich 47 Stevens 45

by pollbuster, Sat May 17, 2008 at 10:20:14 AM EST

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_sena te_elections/alaska/election_2008_alaska _senate

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that Republican Senator Ted Stevens is trailing by two percentage points in his bid for re-election. Stevens attracts 45% of the vote while Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) earns 47%. A month ago, it was Stevens with 46% support and Begich at 45%.

The republican Stevens now joins the ranks of vulnerable republicans which now include: Cornyn of Texas, Smith of Oregon, Coleman of Minnesota, McConnell of Kentucky, Dole of North Carolina, and Sununu of New Hampshire, with races in Maine and Kansas threatening to enter this category. And when we add this to the open republican seats now in play in Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado, the harvest this November could truly be bountiful.

The only democratic seat that is supposed to be in play is Landrieu of Lousiana, but this has not really materialized for the republicans, with polls showing Sen Landrieu as safe thus far.http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/4/13/1354 28/282

In the Alaska race Rasmussen notes that any incumbent who polls below 50% is considered potentially vulnerable, especially when they trail a challenger early in the campaign season. Stevens is supported by just 68% of those who plan to vote for John McCain. Twenty-four percent (24%) of McCain voters say they'll be splitting the ticket to vote for Begich.

Still, the partisan lines have begun to harden. Stevens is supported by 79% of GOP voters, up from 71% a month ago. Begich attracts 89% of Democrats, up eleven points in a month. Begich also has a 53% to 35% advantage among unaffiliated voters.

Stevens is viewed favorably by 46% of the state's voters, down from 50% a month ago. The number with an unfavorable opinion of their Senator has grown six points to 53%.

Begich earns favorable reviews from 54% while 38% have an unfavorable opinion. Those numbers are down a bit from last month when he was viewed favorably by 56% and unfavorably by 35%.




Tags: Alaska senate, Begich, Stevens, Senate seats (all tags)

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Re: Alaska Senate: Begich 47 Stevens 45 (none / 0)

Maybe Techno Ted Stevens should send an Internet to his campaign staff and give them some advice.

Go Begich!


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by mistersite on Sat May 17, 2008 at 11:47:43 AM EST

Re: Alaska Senate: Begich 47 Stevens 45 (none / 0)

Stevens is vulnerable up here for three reasons.

  1. The recent scandals involving Ted and his son Ben have turned off a lot of Ted's supporters.
  2. Stevens' often nasty personality have earned him a lot of enemies over the years.
  3. A combination of age and alcohol has taken its toll on him. At a recent fund raiser in Anchorage, Stevens couldn't remember the names of anyone in attendance, even the Republican luminaries that organized the event for him. Ted's handlers now have to insist that everyone wear name tags around him to try to avoid embarrassment.

On the other hand, Stevens (who Alaskans call 'Uncle Ted), is still beloved by a great many Alaskans for all the pork he has brought home over the years.


Let the children lose it Let the children use it Let all the children boogie
by toyomama on Sat May 17, 2008 at 12:22:51 PM EST

What a sea change this will be (2.00 / 1)

Stevens' time has come and gone.  Turn the page, Alaska!  thank you!


by 4justice on Sat May 17, 2008 at 12:32:56 PM EST

Re: Alaska Senate: Begich 47 Stevens 45 (none / 0)

I think I can safely say that the entire country would be smarter for having Stevens lose this election.


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by freedom78 on Sat May 17, 2008 at 12:50:28 PM EST

Re: Alaska Senate: Begich 47 Stevens 45 (none / 0)

The wild card in this race is Sean Parnell.  He is likely to beat Don Young in the Republican Congressional primary--and if that happens, if Gov. Sarah Palin begins campaigning for him criss-crossing the state, they will energize enough voters (who would vote for Sean Parnell) to also vote for Ted Stevens and send him back to DC (or so I think).

The last numbers I saw had Parnell and Young pretty closely split (mind boggling--you'd think Parnell would win in a landslide!) so this is a development worth watching.  While Gov. Palin would likely not campaign for Don Young, she absolutely would for Sean Parnell, either circumstance having a significant impact on the Senate race.

As toyomama pointed out, Uncle Ted is well-respected even by many Democrats up here.  More than a few have voted for him over the years.  He has brought the state gobs and gobs of money and is responsible for landmark fishery legislation, just to name a few.  The Anchorage airport bears his name, for crying out loud!  If Mark Begich could take down this behemoth, it would be huge.

As an aside, this is a race that is absolutely affected by having Obama at the top of the ticket (he won here, taking 74% of the vote).


"The only way I can lose this election is if I'm caught in bed with either a dead girl or a live boy."
by AK Democrat on Sat May 17, 2008 at 01:38:58 PM EST


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